WASHINGTON — With the new mid-marketing year stocks numbers plugged in, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the agricultural supply and demand report April 9.
Here’s the rundown.
Corn: The season-average farm price was unchanged from last month at $4.30 per bushel. Why?
• Prices reported through February indicate much of the crop was marketed at lower prices.
• Feed and residual use was raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion based on corn stocks reported as of March 1, which indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter rose about 6% relative to a year ago.
• Corn used to produce ethanol was increased by 25 million bushels to 4.957 billion bushels based on the most recent data from the grain crushings and co-products production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during March as indicated by Energy Information Administration data.
• Exports were increased 75 million bushels to 2.675 billion, based on export inspection data for the month of March that was the largest monthly total on record, surpassing the previous high set in November of 1989.
• Ending stocks were lowered from last month’s 1.502 billion bushels to 1.352 billion.
• Global coarse grain production for 2020-2021 is forecast 1.2 million tons higher.
• Foreign corn ending stocks are essentially unchanged from last month, mostly reflecting increases for South Korea and Pakistan that are offset by a reduction for Saudi Arabia.
Soybeans: USDA increased the season-average price a dime from last month to $11.25 per bushel. Why?
• Soybean exports were increased from 2.25 billion to 2.28 billion bushels mainly reflecting record exports through the first half of the marketing year.
• Soybean crush was reduced 10 million bushels this month on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast and a higher projected extraction rate.
• Seed use was lowered 2 million bushels in line with plantings for the 2021-2022 crop indicated in the March 31 prospective plantings report.
• Residual use was reduced from 21 million to 4 million bushels based on indications in the March 31 grain stocks report.
• Soybean ending stocks are projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast.
• Higher soybean oil prices are expected to continue in coming months as additional renewable fuel capacity comes online.
• Global soybean production was increased by 1.4 million tons to 363.2 million, mainly reflecting a 2-million-ton increase to a record 136 million for Brazil.
• Global soybean ending stocks were raised 3.1 million tons to 86.9 million, largely on higher stocks for China and Brazil.
Wheat: USDA kept the projected season-average farm price at $5 per bushel. Why?
• Projected 2020-2021 ending stocks were increased to 852 million bushels, but are still 17% below last year.
• Supplies were lowered with a reduction in projected imports by 10 million bushels to 110 million on a lower-than-expected import pace with decreases in durum and hard red spring.
• Domestic consumption was lowered primarily on less implied feed and residual use, as well as a small reduction in seed use.
• The March 31 grain stocks report indicated less feed and residual disappearance for both the second and third quarters. As a result, annual 2020-2021 feed and residual use was lowered by 25 million bushels to 100 million.
• Exports are unchanged this month, but there are offsetting by-class changes for white and hard red winter exports.
• The 2020-2021 global wheat outlook is for slightly smaller supplies, increased consumption, higher exports and reduced stocks this month.
• Projected 2020-2021 world ending stocks were lowered by 5.7 million tons to 295.5 million with China accounting for most of the reduction. Stocks in China in 2020-2021 are projected to decline for the first time in eight years.
Corn (2020-2021 marketing year)
Total corn supply: 16.127 billion bushels
Exports: 2.675 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.7 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.4 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 4.957 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.352 billion bushels
Soybeans (2020-2021 marketing year)
Total soybean supply: 4.695 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 106 million bushels
Exports: 2.28 billion bushels
Crush: 2.19 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 120 million bushels
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