March 28, 2024

Crop balance sheets: USDA lowers corn, soybean ending stocks

WASHINGTON — Lower production estimates pushed projected season average soybean and corn prices up in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand report.

Here are the details.

SOYBEANS: THE U.S. SEASON-AVERAGE SOYBEAN PRICE FOR 2020-2021 IS FORECAST AT $9.25 PER BUSHELS, UP 90 CENTS FROM LAST MONTH.

Why?

• Lower beginning stocks reflect increases in exports and crush for 2019-2020.

• Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 112 million on a lower yield forecast of 51.9 bushels per acre. Yield is down 1.4 bushels per acre from the August forecast.

• With soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 150 million from last month’s estimate.

• Soybean production was increased for Brazil, Canada and India and lowered for Ukraine. Brazil’s 2020-2021 soybean crop was raised by 2 million tons to 133 million, mainly on increased area as producers face stronger prices and competitive exchange rates ahead of planting.

• Global ending stocks were reduced by 1.8 million tons to 93.6 million as lower U.S. stocks are partly offset by higher foreign stocks, particularly for Argentina and Brazil.

CORN: USDA INCREASED THE PROJECTED NEW CROP SEASON-AVERAGE PRICE BY 40 CENTS FROM LAST MONTH TO $3.50 PER BUSHEL.

Why?

• Corn production is forecast at 14.9 billion bushels, down 378 million from last month on a lower yield forecast and reduction in harvested area. U.S. average yield lowered from 181.8 bushels per acre last month to 178.5 bushels per acre.

• Corn supplies were reduced from last month, as a smaller crop more than offsets higher beginning stocks mostly due to lower estimated exports for 2019-2020.

• Corn used for ethanol for 2020-2021 was lowered 100 million bushels based on the continued slow recovery in motor gasoline demand as a result of COVID-19.

• U.S. exports were raised 100 million bushels reflecting reduced supplies in competitor countries.

• With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks were lowered by 253 million bushels from last month to 2.503 billion bushels.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are lower relative to last month, as increases for India and Nigeria are more than offset by a decline for China.

WHEAT: THE PROJECTED SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE WAS UNCHANGED AT $4.50 PER BUSHEL.

Why?

• There were no changes made this month in the U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook.

• The 2020-2021 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, greater exports and higher stocks. Supplies were raised 3.3 million tons to 1.070.3 billion, mostly on higher production in Australia and Canada more than offsetting a smaller crop in Argentina. This is the second and third highest wheat production on record for Canada at 36 million tons and Australia at 28.5 million tons, respectively.

• Projected 2020-2021 world ending stocks were increased 2.6 million tons to 319.4 million to a new record, with China and India accounting for 51% and 10% of the total, respectively.

Corn (2020-2021 Marketing Year)

Total corn supply: 17.178 billion bushels

Exports: 2.325 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.825 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.525 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.1 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.503 billion bushels

Soybeans (2020-2021 Marketing Year)

Total soybean supply: 4.903 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 138 million bushels

Exports: 2.125 billion bushels

Crush: 2.18 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 460 million bushels