We have had an unusual amount of rain for the end of the month of July. Usually, we are burning up and crops are suffering and stressed, but this year we have more water than you can shake a stick at. We had over 6.5 inches of rain in the last week in three different rain events. The ground soaked a big portion of the rain up and the wet holes are holding water, but nothing like in the spring, so most of the crops still should make it without too much damage. I don’t think any of us farmers will complain about an abundance of rain in the month of July or even August.
The temperature has been more pleasant, and the cooler weather should really help with grain fill on this early corn. I saw the forecast for next week and a high in the 70s is just usually cool for this time of year for us, but I will definitely take full advantage of it. I’ll have to focus more on washing up equipment and doing some stuff around the barn lot that requires some attention because we will not be able to be out in the fields for awhile.
I was able to sneak out before the rain and checked some later planted corn this week. I will tell you what I’m seeing and how “I” think some will be more disappointed than others in the combine this fall. We are all guilty of pushing it in the spring and with the last two wet springs we did it more than we want to admit. What that results to is uneven emergence and a lot of inconsistencies through the field. What I mean is we had corn at different heights, coming into pollination days apart, and corn plants robbing nutrients from younger plants because of competition. I walked down a corn row and was in beautiful consistent corn and in 15 feet it dropped off down to shorter corn and some with some large caps within the row itself. I went and pulled an ear from the good corn it was 16 round and 40 long. Pollination was excellent and looked like it had all the right things to finish out strong. Then pulled one 15 feet away in the uneven corn and found it was still 16 round, but the big thing was I would only give it 25 to 30 long at best. Pollination was spotty in places and had some at the top of the ear that didn’t have anything at all. Now even if that ear fills out every kernel at that 25 mark, that is a huge yield drag compared to the 40-long ear only 15 feet away.
I know all of us have seen how fast corn can change on the yield monitor, so those good places will be awesome. On the other hand, those areas where we have uneven wavier corn will fall off fast. Not every field is like that, but when you drive by and see the first 5 to 10 feet of a field and think that’s amazing, but then you get the end rows off and start seeing those bad areas, guys will understand how those marginal days we pushed will really affect our numbers this fall. I’m not pointing any fingers because I’m guilty of this, too. I just see everyone talk about great-looking crops because the timely rains and weather we’ve been blessed with this summer and some hearts will be broken when reality sets in this fall. I think the early corn will be great and the window between May 10 through the really wet period until almost the end of May, this going to be the corn I’m talking about now. The later stuff into June will be better and looks a lot better from what I’ve seen in our area.
We all keep hearing China is buying large quantities of grain from the United States and still no market movement. It’s really frustrating when you know the price will more than likely go down more before this is all over. I think basis will play a big role in the winners and losers of the price game come fall. It’s finding the time between now and then that makes it so hard to find that magic place to be. We hear of drought-like conditions in parts of Iowa and other places in the west that produce corn. Will we get a report that reacts to that and makes a rally before fall? Who knows, but I’m hopeful that some uncertainty in crop condition will trend the market upwards. If China actually supports those claims of buying large amounts and delivers to port, then maybe, just maybe, we will see a response.
These are two things that I feel can trigger a very small rally to get a little more price before fall. Other than that, I’m pretty long in the tooth and feel it could be hard to find any positive movement until end of the year. Get a plan together for your operation, so you’re not left with an even more difficult decision this fall when the trucks on the scales and the combines back waiting in the field. Talk it over and see where you want to end up by the end of the year and where those bushels need to go to make it all happen.
Hope, Ind.