WASHINGTON — “I” state projected corn and soybean yields were lowered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August crop production estimates.

The report also noted that this marked the first year USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service eliminated the August objective yield survey for corn and soybeans.

The first objective yield survey conducted for those crops will begin in September.

Corn

Illinois — Planted area is estimated at 10.70 million acres, down 3% from last year. Harvested area, forecast at 10.45 million acres, is down 4% from 2018. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 181 bushels per acre, down 29 bushels from 2018. Production is forecast at 1.89 billion bushels, 17% below last year. If realized, this would be the lowest planted and harvested acreage since 1998.

Indiana — Producers planted 250,000 fewer acres in 2019 and total production is forecast at 813.4 million bushels after harvesting 982.8 million last year. The state’s average yield is projected at 166 bushels per acre, 23 lower than in 2018.

Iowa — The projected average yield of 191 bushels per acre is five below last year. USDA has harvested acres of 13.2 million acres compared to 12.8 million a year ago for an estimated production of just over 2.521 billion bushels (2.509 billion in 2018).

United States — Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82 million acres, down 2% from the previous forecast, but up less than 1% from last year. At 13.9 billion bushels, 2019 corn production for grain is forecast to be the fifth highest production on record for the nation.

The forecasted yield, at 169.5 bushels per acre, is down 4% from last year’s final estimate of 176.4 bushels per acre. Record high yields are forecast for Kentucky and Tennessee.

Soybeans

Illinois — Planted area is estimated at 10 million acres, down 7% from last year. Harvested area, forecast at 9.94 million acres, is 8% below 2018. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, the state’s soybean yield is forecast at 55 bushels per acre, down 10 bushels from 2018. Production is forecast at 547 million bushels, 22% lower than 2018.

Indiana — Yield is projected at 50 bushels per acre, down 8.5 bushels from last year’s record average of 58.5 bushels. Total production is forecast at 269 million bushels, 22% lower than last year’s 346.32 million. Harvested acres of 5.37 million are well below last year’s 5.92 million.

Iowa — USDA projected an average yield of 55 bushels per acre, two less than in 2018. Harvested acres are estimated at 9.13 million compared to 9.91 million a year ago. If realized, production would total 502.15 million bushels after hitting 564.87 million in 2018.

United States — Production is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, down 19% from 2018. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 48.5 bushels per harvested acre, 3.1 bushels below 2018.

Area harvested for beans is forecast at 75.9 million acres, 4% less than the previous forecast, and down 14% from 2018. Area planted for all purposes was lowered by 4% from the previous estimate to 76.7 million acres, and down 14% from 2018.

Winter Wheat

Illinois — Harvested area in 2019 is forecast at 590,000 acres, up 30,000 acres from the previous year. The winter wheat yield is projected at 65 bushels per acre, down one bushel from 2018. Production is projected at 38.4 million bushels, up 4% from last year.

Indiana — An average yield of 67 bushels per acre is projected, unchanged from the previous forecast and four bushels below last year. Winter wheat production is forecast at 17.42 million bushels compared to 18.46 million a year ago. Harvested acres are estimated to match 2018 at 260,000 acres.

United States — Production is forecast at 1.33 billion bushels, up 3% from the previous forecast and 12% higher than 2018. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, the nation’s yield is forecast at 53.2 bushels per acre, up 1.4 bushels from last month and 5.3 bushels more than last year’s average yield of 47.9 bushels per acre. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, only behind 2016’s record high yield of 55.3 bushels per acre. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 24.9 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 1% from last year.

Survey Procedure

The USDA also included the following revision note at the conclusion of the crop production report: “The Aug. 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest.

“At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes.

“Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the August crop production report if conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey.

“Revisions to planted acres will only be made when either special survey data, administrative data, such as Farm Service Agency program ‘sign up’ data, or remote sensing data are available.

“Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last forecast.”

Tom C. Doran can be reached at 815-780-7894 or tdoran@agrinews-pubs.com. Follow him on Twitter at: @AgNews_Doran.

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