WASHINGTON — Lower marketing year-end supplies reflected in the recent quarterly stocks estimates pushed projected corn and soybean ending stocks down in the Oct. 10 U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand balance sheets.
Here are highlights of the report.
USDA forecasts the 2019-2020 season average price for soybeans at $9 per bushel, up 50 cents from the September estimate. Why?
U.S. soybean production is forecast at 3.6 billion bushels, down 83 million, mainly on lower yields.
The soybean yield is projected at 46.9 bushels per acre, down one bushel from the September forecast.
Harvested area was reduced slightly to 75.6 million acres.
Soybean supplies for the new marketing year are forecast at 4.5 billion bushels, down 175 million on lower production and beginning stocks.
With a small increase in soybean crush, ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 180 million.
Global soybean production is projected at 339 million tons, down 2.4 million tons to a four-year low, mainly reflecting lower production for the U.S.
Brazil and Argentina soybean production was unchanged from last month at 123 million tons and 53 million tons, respectively.
With lower global oilseed supplies only partly offset by reduced crush, global oilseed stocks are projected at 109.8 million tons, down 4.6 million.
The season average price for corn projected to be received by producers was increased 10 cents from last month to $3.80 per bushel. Why?
Corn production is forecast at 13.779 billion bushels, down 20 million as a decline in harvested area more than offsets an increased yield forecast.
Corn supplies are forecast down sharply from last month on a reduced crop and lower beginning stocks based on the Sept. 30 grain stocks report.
Exports were reduced 150 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and U.S. price competitiveness.
Corn used for ethanol is down 50 million bushels based on weekly production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration during September.
Projected feed and residual use increased by 125 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2018-2019.
Corn ending stocks for 2019-2020 were lowered by 261 million bushels to 1.929 billion bushels.
From July to September, Brazil has exported close to 20 million tons of corn, nearly 50% above the previous high for the time period, with large shipments to important U.S. markets such as Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Colombia.
Global corn stocks, at 302.6 million tons, are down 3.7 million from last month.
The season-average farm price for wheat was reduced by a dime from last month to $4.70 per bushel. Why?
U.S. wheat production was cut 18.5 million bushels to 1.962 billion based on the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s small grains summary, issued on Sept. 30.
Projected imports were lowered 15 million bushels to 120 million on a slow pace to date.
The NASS grain stocks report raised 2018-2019 ending stocks 8 million bushels and estimated first quarter 2019-2020 stocks at 2.385 billion bushels, down fractionally from the previous year. These stocks imply first-quarter feed and residual use is similar to last year.
Annual 2019-2020 feed and residual use was reduced by 30 million bushels to 140 million but remain above last year’s revised 89.8 million.
U.S. wheat exports were lowered 25 million bushels to 950 million on reduced competitiveness in international markets.
Ending stocks are projected at 1.043 billion bushels, up 29 million from the previous month.
World wheat consumption was reduced 1.1 million tons primarily on a 0.8-million-ton reduction in U.S. feed and residual use.
With supplies rising and use declining, global ending stocks are raised 1.3 million tons to a record 287.8 million.