WASHINGTON — Using new data from the quarterly grain stocks and acreage reports, the U.S. Department of Agriculture made various adjustments in the crop supply and demand balance sheets in its July 11 reports.

Here’s what the estimates were after the new data was plugged in.

CORN: USDA LOWERED THE NEW CROP SEASON-AVERAGE CORN PRICE BY 10 CENTS TO $3.70 PER BUSHEL.

Why?

  • Corn beginning stocks were raised 145 million bushels, reflecting lower use forecasts for 2018-2019.
  • Exports were reduced based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date, with export inspection data for June the lowest for the month since 2013.
  • Feed and residual use is down based on indicated disappearance during the first three quarters of the marketing year in the June 28 Grain Stocks.
  • For 2019-2020, corn production is projected 195 million bushels higher based on increased planted and harvested areas from the June 28 acreage report.
  • Excessive rainfall prevented planting at the time of the acreage survey, leaving a portion of acres still to be planted for corn in a number of major producing states. In July, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will collect updated information on 2019 acres planted, and if the newly collected data justify any changes, NASS will publish updated acreage estimates in the August crop production report.
  • The national average corn yield is unchanged at 166 bushels per acre.
  • Silking as reported in the crop progress report is behind the recent historical average, thus for much of the crop the critical pollination period will be during late July into early August.
  • Projected feed and residual use was increased by 25 million bushels, reflecting a larger crop. Feed, seed and industrial use was lowered 20 million bushels, reflecting lower projections for non-ethanol industrial use.
  • Small revisions were made to historical trade and utilization estimates based on the 13th month trade data revisions from the Census Bureau.
  • With supply rising more than use, stocks are raised 335 million bushels to 2.01 billion.

SOYBEANS: USDA INCREASED THE SEASON-AVERAGE 2019-2020 PRICE 15 CENTS FROM LAST MONTH TO $8.40 PER BUSHEL.

Why?

  • Beginning stocks was reduced with higher 2018-2019 residual use more than offsetting lower crush and seed use. Residual use for 2018-2019 is raised based on indications in the June 28 Grain Stocks report combined with crush and export data through May.
  • Soybean production for 2019-2020 is projected at 3.845 billion bushels, down 305 million based on lower planted and harvested area in the June 28 acreage report and on lower projected yields. Harvested area, forecast at 79.3 million acres, is down 4.5 million from last month’s projection.
  • The soybean yield is forecast at 48.5 bushels per acre, down one bushel based on delayed planting progress throughout the major producing states.
  • Soybean exports were lowered by 75 million bushels to 1.875 billion reflecting reduced supplies and increased competition from South American exporters.
  • With crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2019-2020 are projected at 795 million bushels compared with 1.045 billion last.
  • Lower soybean exports for the U.S. are offset with increases for Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay.
  • Global oilseed ending stocks for 2019-2020 were reduced 10.7 million tons to 119.5 million, mainly on lower soybean stocks for the United States, Argentina and Brazil.

WHEAT: USDA’S PROJECTED SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE OF $5.20 PER BUSHEL IS UP A DIME FROM LAST MONTH DUE TO REDUCED STOCKS.

Why?

  • U.S. production was raised by 18 million bushels to 1.921 billion bushels for 2019-2020.
  • The all wheat yield is forecast 1.3 bushels per acre higher at 50 bushels in the U.S. Winter wheat production was increased to 1.291 billion bushels with increases in all winter wheat classes this month. The first 2019-2020 survey-based production forecasts for other spring wheat and durum are both lower than last year, mainly on reduced harvested area at 572 million and 58 million bushels, respectively.
  • Domestic use is higher this month on increased feed and residual use as wheat is expected to be more competitively priced with feed grains in 2019-2020.
  • Exports are projected at 950 million bushels, up 14 million from the revised 2018-2019 exports. Exportable supplies for several major exporters are significantly reduced on lower 2019-2020 production forecasts. As a result, the United States is expected to improve its export competitiveness, especially in the latter stages of the 2019-2020 marketing year.
  • Ending stocks for 2019-2020 are projected 72 million bushels lower than last month at 1 billion.
  • With global supplies declining more than projected use, world ending stocks were lowered by 7.9 million tons to 286.5 million, but remain record large.

Tom C. Doran can be reached at 815-780-7894 or tdoran@agrinews-pubs.com. Follow him on Twitter at: @AgNews_Doran.

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