WASHINGTON — After skipping last month’s agricultural supply and demand estimates report due to the government shutdown, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered corn and soybean production and ending stocks.

Here are the highlights of the Feb. 8 report.

CORN: THE SEASON-AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED BY PRODUCERS WAS LEFT UNCHANGED FROM DECEMBER’S REPORT AT A MIDPOINT OF $3.60 PER BUSHEL.

Why?

  • U.S. corn production is estimated at 14.420 billion bushels, down 206 million on reduction in yield to 176.4 bushels per acre. Harvested area is down fractionally.
  • Total corn use is down 165 million bushels to 14.865 billion. Food, seed and industrial use was lowered 40 million bushels, reflecting reductions to corn used for ethanol and other industrial use. Other FSI use is lowered 15 million bushels with lower projections for high fructose corn syrup and glucose and dextrose.
  • Corn for ethanol was reduced from 5.6 billion bushels in the previous report to 5.575 billion. The reduction is based on the most recent data from the grain crushings and co-products production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the months of December and January.
  • Feed and residual use was reduced by 125 million bushels to 5.375 billion based on a smaller crop and indicated disappearance during September-November as reflected by the Dec. 1 stocks.
  • With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks were lowered by 46 million bushels to 1.735 billion bushels.
  • Global coarse grain production for 2018-2019 is forecast 1.5 million tons lower to 1,372.1 million. Global corn stocks, at 309.8 million, are up 1 million.

SOYBEANS: THE U.S. SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE MIDPOINT FORECAST WAS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS REPORT WITH A RANGE OF $8.10 TO 9.10 PER BUSHEL

Why?

  • U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.544 billion bushels, down 56 million. Harvested area is estimated at 88.1 million acres, down slightly from the previous report.
  • Yield was lowered by one-half bushel from the December to 51.6 bushels per acre, led by reductions for North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.
  • The soybean crush forecast was increased by 10 million bushels to 2.090 billion. Soybean meal production was unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate.
  • Lower supplies and increased crush are partly offset with a 25-million-bushel reduction in exports.
  • Ending stocks are projected at 910 million bushels, down 45 million from the previous forecast.
  • Global soybean production is lowered 8.2 million tons to 361 million with lower crops for Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and South Africa.
  • Production for Brazil was reduced by 5 million tons to 117 million due to dryness in parts of the south and center-west regions. Production for Argentina was lowered one-half million tons to 55 million due to a reduction in harvested area that is partly offset by increased yields.
  • Global soybean exports were reduced 1.7 million tons to 154.4 million. Lower exports for Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay are partly offset by higher exports for Argentina. Global imports were also reduced mainly on a 2-million-ton reduction for China due to lower crush demand.
  • Global 2018-2019 soybean marketing-year ending stocks was lowered 8.6 million tons this month to 106.7 million, which is an 8.6-million-ton increase over the 2017-2018 estimate.

WHEAT: THE SEASON-AVERAGE PRICE RANGE WAS LEFT UNCHANGED AT $5.05 TO $5.25 PER BUSHEL BASED ON PRICES REPORTED TO DATE AND MARKEING YEAR EXPECTIONS.

Why?

  • Projected 2018-2019 wheat ending stocks were raised by 36 million bushels on reduced feed and residual use and lower seed use.
  • Feed and residual use was reduced 30 million bushels on larger than expected second-quarter stocks reported in Feb. 8 quarterly grain stocks report.
  • Seed use is down 6 million bushels reflecting 2019-2020 winter wheat planted area released in the Feb. 8 winter wheat and canola seedings report.
  • Winter wheat planted area is lower than expected on excessive precipitation and cool temperatures during the planting window.
  • Ending stocks are now projected at 1.010 billion bushels.
  • World production for the 2018-2019 marketing year was raised 1.3 million tons, led by a 1.6-million-ton increase for Russia, a 0.6-million-ton increase for Brazil, and a 0.5-million-ton increase for Paraguay.
  • Global use for 2018-2019 is raised 2 million tons, primarily on a 2-million-ton increase in China feed and residual use. With global use rising more than supplies, world ending stocks were lowered 0.6 million tons to 267.5 million.

Tom C. Doran can be reached at 815-780-7894 or tdoran@agrinews-pubs.com. Follow him on Twitter at: @AgNews_Doran.

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