WASHINGTON — Soybean stocks continue to tighten as corn
heads in the opposite direction, according to the Sept. 12 world agricultural
supply and demand estimates.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected U.S. oilseed
production for 2013-2014 at 93.2 million tons, down three million from last
month’s estimate due to lower soybean, cottonseed and peanut production.
Soybean production is projected at 3.149 billion bushels,
down 106 million due to lower yield prospects, especially in the western Corn
Belt. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.2 bushels per acre, down 1.4 from last
Soybean exports are reduced 15 million bushels to 1.37
billion, reflecting reduced supplies and increased competition from South
Soybean crush was reduced 20 million bushels to 1.655
billion, reflecting lower projected soybean meal exports and domestic soybean
Soybean ending stocks for the current marketing year are
projected at 150 million bushels, down 70 million from last month.
Other changes for 2013-2013 include includes reduced soybean
oil production and exports.
The 2012-2013 supply and demand estimates include a
five-million-bushel increase in soybean imports to a record 40 million and a
five-million-bushel increase in crush.
Ending stocks for 2012-2013 remain unchanged at 125 million
bushels. The stocks-to-use ratio is 4.04 percent, the tightest since
The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $11.50
to $13.50 per bushel, up $1.15 on both ends of the range.
Soybean meal prices are projected at $360 to $400 per short
ton, up $55 at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are projected at 43 to 47 cents
per pound, down one cent at the midpoint as large global vegetable oil supplies
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013-2014 are projected higher
this month as forecast increases in corn and sorghum production more than offset
declines in projected beginning stocks for the same crops.
Corn production is forecast 80 million bushels higher at a
record 13.8 billion bushels. The national average corn yield is forecast at
155.3 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from last month.
Higher yields for the Central Plains and across the south
more than offset yield reductions for Iowa and North Dakota.
Corn supplies for 2013-2014 are projected 18 million bushels
higher due to increased production. However, projected imports are reduced 5
million bushels, and beginning stocks are down 58 million bushels on lower
imports and higher use projections for 2012-2013.
Projected corn use for 2013-2014 is unchanged. Ending stocks
for 2013-2014 are projected 18 million bushels higher.
The projected season-average farm price for corn was lowered
10 cents at both ends of the range to $4.40 to $5.20 per bushel.
Total corn use for 2012-2013 was projected 55 million
bushels higher. Corn used in the production of ethanol was raised 15 million
bushels based on stronger-than-expected August ethanol production as indicated
by weekly ethanol production data from the Energy Information Administration.
Partly offsetting is a five-million-bushel reduction in corn
used for sweeteners.
The USDA raised corn exports by 20 million bushels based on
the latest information from the U.S. Bureau of Census and August grain
Projected feed and residual use was increased 25 million
bushels, reflecting the limited amount of new-crop corn available for use before
Sept. 1 due to delayed 2013 crop maturity.
The 2012-2013 season-average farm price for corn is lowered
five cents per bushel from the midpoint of last month’s projected range with the
lower prices reported for July and August.
At $6.90 per bushel, the 2012-2013 price remains a record
and well above the previous record of $6.22 per bushel in 2011-2012.
Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013-2014 were increased
10 million bushels with higher expected imports from a larger wheat crop in
U.S. trade and food use changes by wheat class largely
reflect higher projected exports by Canada.
Hard red spring wheat imports were raised 10 million
bushels, and durum imports are raised five million bushels. Partly offsetting is
a five-million-bushel reduction in projected soft red winter wheat imports.
Food use was raised 10 million bushels for HRS wheat and
lowered 10 million bushels for hard red winter wheat.
HRS wheat exports were lowered 10 million bushels,
reflecting increased competition from Canadian spring wheat.
HRW wheat exports were raised an offsetting 10 million
bushels on the strong pace of sales and shipments in recent weeks.
Projected all wheat ending stocks were raised 10 million
The projected range for the 2013-2014 season-average farm
price is narrowed 10 cents on each end of the range to $6.50 to $7.50 per
bushel, well below the 2012-2013 record of $7.77 per bushel.
The USDA also reported on the latest global corn, soybean
and wheat balance sheets. Global oilseed production for 2013-2014 is projected
at 495.1 million tons, up two million from last month.
Gains in foreign production more than offset lower forecasts
for the U.S. Global soybean production is projected almost unchanged at a record
281.7 million tons as larger crop forecasts for Brazil and Paraguay mostly
offset reductions for the U.S., Canada, China and Russia.
Soybean production for Brazil is forecast at a record 88
million tons, up three million on increased area. Recent price strength and a
weaker real are expected to provide incentives for soybean producers to increase
area by 4 percent from last year.
Soybean production for China is reduced 0.3 million tons to
12.2 million on lower yields, resulting from excess rainfall and flooding in the
northeast. If realized, this would be China’s smallest soybean harvest since
Little change is expected for global soybean trade in
2013-2014 as lower exports for the U.S. and Argentina are offset by higher
exports by Brazil and Paraguay.
Global oilseed stocks are projected at 81.2 million tons, up
0.5 million as gains for rapeseed and sunflower seed more than offset lower
Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-2014 are projected 0.5
million tons lower, mostly reflecting lower foreign corn production.
Foreign 2013-2014 corn production was lowered 2.5 million
tons with reductions for Argentina, Canada, Serbia and Paraguay. Reductions for
Argentina and Paraguay reflect smaller expected areas for crops that have yet to
Foreign corn beginning stocks for 2013-2014 were raised one
million tons, mostly with an increase in 2012-2013 Brazil production.
Global 2013-2014 corn consumption was lowered with
reductions in corn feeding in Argentina, Canada and Serbia more than offsetting
an increase for South Korea where wheat feeding is reduced this month.
Global corn ending stocks for 2013-2014 are projected 1.3
million tons higher with larger stocks in Brazil and the U.S.
Global 2013-2014 wheat supplies were raised three million
tons with increased production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks.
World wheat production is projected at a record 708.9
million tons, up 3.5 million this month. Higher production in Canada, the
European Union and the FSU-12 more than offsets reductions for Iran and
Production was raised two million tons for Canada as cool
July weather supported flowering and reproduction and abundant soil moisture and
favorably warm, dry weather in August aided grain fill and maturity across the
Prairie Prov inces.
With global consumption down slightly, higher production
boosts projected global ending stocks 3.3 million tons. World wheat stocks now
are expected to increase during 2013-2014.