WASHINGTON — Projected new-crop season-average farm prices
for corn and soybeans were left unchanged, while ending stocks were above trade
expectations in the world agricultural supply-demand report released July
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected the 2013-2014
season-average corn price range at $4.40 to $5.20 per bushel, the same as last
The new-crop season-average soybean price is forecast at
$9.75 to $11.75 per bushel, matching last month, as well.
Soybean product price projections also were unchanged, with
soybean meal prices forecast at $290 to $330 per short ton and soybean oil
prices forecast at 47 to 51 cents per pound.
U.S. corn and soybean yields also were left unchanged from
June at 156.5 and 44.5 bushels per acre, respectively. Any adjustments will be
made next month, based on survey results.
Corn yield estimates in the July 2012 report averaged 123.4
bushels per acre, and soybeans were 39.6 bushels.
Wheat’s projected range for the 2013-2014 season-average
farm price is raised 20 cents on both ends to $6.45 to $7.75 per bushel. At the
$7.20-per-bushel midpoint, this would be down from the record $7.77 per bushel
reported for 2012-2013.
Projected 2013-2014 U.S. feed grain supplies were lowered
this month with reduced beginning stocks for corn and sorghum and lower forecast
harvested areas for corn and sorghum from the last month’s acreage report.
Corn beginning stocks for 2013-2014 are projected 40 million
bushels lower. Corn production for 2013-2014 was lowered 55 million bushels with
the lower harvested area and the projected yield unchanged.
Projected production remains just below 14 billion bushels
and would be 858 million above the record in 2009-2010.
Corn supplies for 2013-2014 were lowered 90 million bushels
as a 5-million-bushel increase in imports only partly offsets the lower
beginning stocks and production.
This month’s changes to corn use for 2012-2013 and 2013-2014
largely reflect the lateness of the 2013 crop and expectations for extremely
tight supplies later this summer and into early fall.
Feed and residual disappearance for 2012-2013 was raised 50
million bushels as early harvest of new-crop corn is expected to be sharply
reduced from last year.
A 10-million-bushel increase in projected imports for
2012-2013 also reflects the tight supply situation expected for old-crop corn
during the summer quarter.
Imports for 2013-2014 were raised because the tight supply
situation is expected to continue into September.
The USDA lowered feed and residual use for 2013-2014 by 50
million bushels with tighter beginning stocks and lower production and also on
the lack of early new-crop usage, which tends to boost indicated disappearance
during the September-December quarter of the new marketing year.
Projected exports for 2013-2014 were lowered 50 million
bushels as tight supplies of corn in early September are expected to limit
With lower projected use in 2013-2014, ending stocks were
raised 10 million bushels and remain just under 2 billion bushels.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-2014 are projected 3.6
million tons lower with 2.9 million tons of the decline resulting from the
tighter supply situation for corn and sorghum in the U.S. Foreign coarse grain
supply and use changes this month are relatively small in the aggregate.
The USDA lowered corn beginning stocks for 2013-2014 for
Brazil with higher 2012-2013 exports and for Indonesia with lower 2012-2013
China corn production for 2013-2014 was reduced by 1 million
tons on lower indicated area. European Union corn production was increased 1.8
million tons when adjusted for this month’s inclusion of Croatia, but last
month’s 27-member union is lowered 0.4 million tons.
Global 2013-2014 coarse grain trade is mostly unchanged this
month with exports down slightly on the reduction for U.S. corn. Global corn
consumption is down 2.6 million tons with half of the reduction in the U.S.
Global corn ending stocks for 2013-2014 are projected at
151.0 million tons, down 0.9 million, with reductions for Brazil and China.
World corn stocks are expected to be the highest since 2001-2002.
USDA projected U.S. oilseed production for 2013-2014 at
100.9 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month, with increased soybean
production mostly offset by reductions for other oilseeds.
Soybean production was projected at 3.42 billion bushels, up
30 million due to increased harvested area.
Harvested area, estimated at 76.9 million acres in the June
28 acreage report, is 0.7 million above the June projection.
Soybean supplies are 30 million bushels above last month’s
forecast, reflecting the production change.
With projections for exports and crush unchanged, 2013-2014
soybean ending stocks were raised 30 million bushels to 295 million. U.S.
soybean supply and use projections for 2012-2013 were unchanged.
Global oilseed production for 2013-2014 is projected at
492.9 million tons, up 2.1 million from last month. Higher forecasts for
soybeans, rapeseed, cottonseed and peanuts are only partly offset by reductions
for sunflower seed.
Global soybean production is projected at 285.9 million
tons, up 0.6 million with gains for the U.S., China and Canada only partly
offset by reductions for Argentina and Russia.
Argentina soybean production was reduced due to a lower
harvested area estimate for both 2012-2013 and 2013-2014. Brazil soybean
production for this year was unchanged from last month at 85 million
Rapeseed production for Canada is projected at 15 million
tons, up 0.5 million based on increased area consistent with the latest survey
results reported by Statistics Canada.
Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013-2014 were raised
slightly this month with lower beginning stocks more than offset by higher
production, both based on the latest survey-based estimates and forecasts.
Beginning stocks were reduced 27 million bushels as
indicated by the June 1 stocks estimate in the June 28 grain stocks report.
Production is forecast up 34 million bushels with lower
forecast harvested area from the USDA’s June 28 acreage report more than offset
by higher yields.
Production was raised 11 million bushels for hard red winter
and 30 million bushels for soft red winter wheat. White winter wheat is forecast
down 7 million bushels.
For durum, a reduction in area is only partly offset by a
higher yield with production forecast down 5 million bushels.
For other spring wheat, a reduction in area is more than
offset by a higher yield forecast in the July crop production report, adding 4
million bushels to this month’s production forecast.
July survey-based yield forecasts for durum and other spring
wheat are up 1.6 bushels per acre from last month’s trend based
Total U.S. wheat use for 2013-2014 was increased 89 million
bushels as lower expected domestic use is more than offset by higher projected
Projected feed and residual disappearance was lowered 10
million bushels with stronger export demand, especially for SRW wheat.
Exports are projected 100 million bushels higher, reflecting
strong sales, particularly to China.
Ending stocks are projected down 83 million bushels. At 576
million tons, stocks are expected to remain well above the 60-year low of 306
million in 2007-2008.
The USDA lowered global wheat supplies for 2013-2014 3.5
million tons, reflecting lower projected beginning stocks as world production
rises 1.9 million tons. Higher 2012-2013 feed use in China accounts for most of
the reduction in beginning stocks.
Global wheat consumption for 2013-2014 was increased 5.4
million tons, mostly reflecting higher expected feeding in China.
Wheat consumption also was raised for India, Pakistan, Iran
and Japan, offsetting reductions for the European Union and the U.S.
Global wheat trade was increased with a 5-million-ton
increase in China imports.
World ending stocks for 2013-2014 are projected 8.9 million
tons lower. At 172.4 million tons, stocks would be the lowest since 2008-2009,
but well above the 128.8 million in 2007-2008.