WASHINGTON – Corn and soybean ending stocks were reduced due
to increased demand in the Dec. 10 U.S. Department of Agriculture’s world
supply-demand estimates report.
U.S. corn use for 2013-2014 was projected higher with
increases for food, seed and industrial use and for exports.
Corn used in ethanol production was estimated 50 million
bushels higher, reflecting the strong pace of weekly ethanol production since
mid-October. Exports also were projected 50 million bushels higher based on the
pace of sales to date and higher expected global consumption.
On the supply side of the balance sheet, U.S., feed grain
supplies for 2013-2014 were raised this month with a 5 million bushel increase
projected for corn imports. With a record crop now estimated for Canada,
additional quantities of Canadian corn are expected to find their way into the
U.S. current marketing year ending stocks were projected at
1.792 billion bushels, compared to 1.887 billion estimated last month.
The 2013-2014 season-average farm price for corn is
projected 10 cents lower at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $4.05 to
$4.75 per bushel based on prices reported to date.
Average prices received by farmers, however, are expected to
continue to be reported above prevailing cash bids well into early 2014 as some
sales will reflect the higher forward prices available before harvesting.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-2014 are projected 3.6
million tons higher. At more than 1.420 million tons, supplies are up 122.8
million from 2012-2013 and 103.1 million above the previous record in 2011-2012.
Corn accounts for more than 80 percent of the increase over
this period with 2013-2014 world corn production up 101.4 million tons from last
Global corn output for 2013-2014 was raised this month with
Canada and Ukraine increased 1.1 million tons and 1 million tons,
Global 2013-2014 coarse grain consumption was increased 4.3
million tons with half of the increase from higher foreign corn
World corn ending stocks are projected 1.9 million tons
lower as the U.S. reduction is only partly offset by a 0.5-million-ton increase
The USDA increased soybean exports estimates by 25 million
bushels to 1.475 billion, reflecting record commitments — shipments plus
outstanding sales — through November.
Soybean crush was raised 5 million bushels to 1.690 billion
as strong foreign demand for soybean meal, led by the European Union and
Southeast Asia, more than offsets a reduction in domestic soybean meal use.
Soybean oil supplies are increased in line with higher crush.
With total use unchanged, soybean oil stocks were increased
55 million pounds to 1.69 billion.
Although total use was unchanged, soybean oil used for
methyl ester is projected lower, reflecting expanded production of non-ester
based renewable diesel.
Soybean ending stocks for the current marketing year were
projected at 150 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.
Prices for soybeans and soybean meal were projected higher
The U.S. season average soybean price range for 2013-2014 is
projected at $11.50 to $13.50 per bushel, up 35 cents on both ends of the range.
The soybean meal price is projected at $400 to $440 per
short ton, up $25 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is
projected at 38 cents to 42 cents per pound, down two cents on both ends.
Global soybean production is projected at a record 284.9
million tons, up 1.4 million due to increases for Argentina and Canada.
Argentina production is projected at 54.5 million tons, up 1 million due to
higher projected area.
Brazil’s soybean production remained unchanged at 88 million
tons, 6 million more than last year.
Global oilseed trade is projected at 128.3 million tons, up
1.6 million from last month.
Increased soybean exports from the U.S. and increased
rapeseed exports from Canada account for most of the change.
Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 82.8 million
tons, up 2.1 million as lower soybean stocks in the U.S. are more than offset by
increased soybean stocks in Argentina, Canada, the European Union and Russia and
higher rapeseed stocks in Canada and Australia.
Global wheat supplies continue to grow.
Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013-2014 were increased
10 million bushels this month with higher projected imports.
Record production and higher exports for Canada are expected
to add to wheat supplies in the U.S. Imports are up 5 million bushels each for
hard red spring and soft red winter wheat.
Projected exports for all wheat are unchanged, but minor
adjustments were made by class with SRW wheat exports raised 5 million bushels
and HRS wheat exports lowered an offsetting amount. Projected ending stocks are
raised 10 million bushels.
The 2013-2014 projected season-average farm price is lowered
10 cents at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel as
near record world supplies and increased export competition reduce price
prospects for U.S. wheat.
Global 2013-2014 wheat supplies are raised 5.3 million tons
to 887.3 million. This is up 32.1 million tons from last year, but 9 million
tons below the record supplies of 2011-2012.
Global 2013-2014 production was raised by 5 million tons
with most of the increase for Canada based on the latest Statistics Canada
estimate which put production at a record 37.5 million tons.
This is up 4.3 million tons from last month’s forecast and
5.4 million tons higher than the previous record in 1990-1991 as excellent
summer weather and an extended growing season boosted yields to record
Global wheat trade for 2013-2014 was raised this month with
larger available supplies in key exporter countries and stronger demand expected
for several importing countries.
Exports were raised 1.5 million tons for Canada, 1 million
tons for the European Union and 0.5 million tons for Australia.
Global wheat ending stocks are projected 4.3 million tons
higher, mostly on increases for Canada and Australia.