March 29, 2024

Crop balance sheets: Production projections push up ending stocks

WASHINGTON — Projected record average yields for the U.S. pushed ending stocks higher when plugged into the agricultural supply and demand estimates report released Aug. 12.

Here are the highlights of the U.S. Department of Agriculture report.

CORN: THE SEASON-AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED BY PRODUCERS IN THE 2020-2021 MARKETING YEAR WAS LOWERED 25 CENTS TO $3.10 PER BUSHEL.

Why?

• Corn production is forecast at 15.3 billion bushels, up 278 million from the July projection.

• The U.S. yield forecast, at a record 181.8 bushels per acre, is 3.3 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection.

• With supply rising more than use, ending stocks were increased by 108 million bushels to 2.8 billion.

• Feed and residual use was increased from 5.85 billion bushels last month to 5.925 billion this month based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices.

• Exports are 73 million higher reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and relatively low world market prices.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are slightly lower relative to last month, reflecting an increase for Indonesia that is more than offset by declines for Canada and India.

SOYBEANS: THE U.S. SEASON-AVERAGE PRICE FOR 2020-2021 IS FORECAST AT $8.35 PER BUSHSEL, DOWN 15 CENTS FROM LAST MONTH.

Why?

• Soybean production is forecast at 4.425 billion bushels, up 290 million from the July forecast on higher yields.

• Harvested area is forecast at 83 million acres, unchanged from the July projection.

• U.S. soybean average yield forecast of 53.3 bushels per acre, up 3.5 bushels from last month and is 5.9 bushels above last year’s level.

• Soybean supplies for 2020-2021 are projected at a record 5.1 billion bushels, up 13% from last year.

• U.S. soybean exports were increased by 75 million bushels to 2.13 billion on increased global import demand, increased supplies and lower prices.

• Soybean crush was increased from 2.16 billion last month to 2.18 billion this month, mainly reflecting increased soybean meal exports.

• Beginning stocks were lowered by 5 million bushels on a small increase in 2019-2020 soybean crush.

• Soybean ending stocks are projected at 610 million bushels, up 185 million from last month.

• The 2020-2021 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, higher use and lower ending stocks.

• Brazil and Argentina soybean production estimates for 2020-2021 were unchanged at 131 million tons and 53.5 million tons, respectively. Brazil’s 2019-2020 production is estimated at 126 million tons and Argentina’s 49.7 million tons.

• With higher global soybean production mostly offset by higher use, mainly in China, global ending stocks were increased by 0.3 million tons to 95.4 million.

WHEAT: USDA LOWERED THE PROJECTED SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE BY 10 CENTS PER BUSHEL TO $4.50 PER BUSHEL.

Why?

• U.S. wheat production was increased by 14 million bushels to 1.838 billion as increased hard red spring and durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the August crop production report.

• Imports were lowered 10 million bushels this month to 130 million on the larger hard red spring wheat supplies.

• Estimated food use for 2019-2020 was reduced fractionally to 962 million bushels, based on the latest USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service flour milling products report.

• Food use for the 2020-2021 marketing year was lowered 4 million bushels to 960 million as food consumed away from home is expected to remain lower than last year due to the impact of COVID-19.

• Projected 2020-2021 exports were raised 25 million bushels to 975 million on lower production for several key competitors, most notably the European Union.

• With offsetting supply changes and increased use, ending stocks were lowered 17 million bushels to 925 million.

• Foreign 2020-2021 wheat production was reduced by 3.7 million tons led by a 4-million-ton reduction for the EU and 1-million-ton reductions each for Kazakhstan and Turkey. These changes are partially offset by a 1.5-million-ton production increase for Russia and a 1.1-million-ton increase for Brazil.

• With global use down more than supplies, world ending stocks are revised 2-million-tons higher to a record 316.8 million tons.

Supply And Demand

Corn (2020-2021 marketing year):

Total corn supply: 17.531 billion bushels

Exports: 2.225 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.925 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.625 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.2 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.756 billion bushels

Soybeans (2020-2021 marketing year):

Total soybean supply: 5.055 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 140 million bushels

Exports: 2.125 billion bushels

Crush: 2.18 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 610 million bushels