WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates the nation’s second lowest winter wheat acreage on record for 2020.
The agency’s winter wheat seedings report expects 30.8 million acres, down 1% from 2019.
Soft red winter wheat seeded area totals 5.64 million acres, up 8% overall from last year. However, decreases are estimated in Illinois and Indiana.
Illinois’ soft red winter wheat seeded area declined from 650,000 in 2019 to 490,000 this year, a 25% decline.
USDA estimates Indiana’s soft red winter wheat seeding at 310,000 acres compared to 330,000 in 2019, a 6% reduction.
Hard red winter wheat seeded area is expected to total 21.8 million acres, down 3% from 2019. Planted acreage is down from last year across most of the hard red growing region. The largest increases in planted acreage are estimated in Texas, up 400,000 acres, while the largest decreases are estimated in Colorado, down 250,000, and Montana, 400,000 less. Record low acreage was seeded in Nebraska, 900,000, and Utah, 120,000.
White winter wheat seeded area totals 3.37 million acres, down 4% from 2019. Planting in the Pacific Northwest was ahead of the five-year average pace in Oregon but was behind in Idaho and Washington. Seeding was virtually complete in the region by early November.
Durum wheat seedings in Arizona and California for 2020 harvest are estimated at a combined 70,000 acres, up 9% from 2019 but 41% below 2018.
The USDA noted that seeding of the 2020 acreage was underway in mid-September but was behind the five-year average pace. About a month into seeding, progress was at or ahead of the five-year average for the remainder of seeding the 2020 acreage. Seeding was mostly complete by Nov. 17.
Expected
Ami Heesch, CHS Hedging market analyst, said the report concurred with what commodity traders anticipated that “we were going to see a lot lower acreage, which we did.
“We’re planting less wheat but I think we’re still going to produce the bushels even with less of a crop. Over the past few years, we’ve had all wheat at 45 million acres and we still managed at 1 billion bushel carryout. We’re still at a 56.5% stocks-to-use ratio for winter wheat which in my opinion is not a friendly number.”
Heesch noted the USDA in its most recent world supply and demand report lowered Australian wheat production from 16.1 million metric tons to 15.6 million, and lowered Russian production by 1 million tons.
“So, we have some things working for us but I’m also thinking that some of that is already factored into the market,” she said.